In its 2019 World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) illustrated a range of different energy mix scenarios in 2040. Total energy demand increases in IEA’s Current Policies and New Policies scenarios and declines by around 10% compared to 2018 in the below 2-degree Celsius Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS). Demand for natural gas and oil have different outcomes across the IEA scenarios. Demand grows relative to 2018 in the Current and New Policies scenarios but declines in SDS. Even in the SDS scenario, 2040 oil demand remains at 61MMbbl/day and natural gas at 64MMboe/day (almost equal to 2018 natural gas demand) and despite a reallocation of capital to renewables, significant investment in natural gas and oil is still required. IEA estimates this to be $750 billion each year from 2021 to 2030 and then $550 billion per year to 2040 - a total of approximately $13 trillion from 2021 to 2040.

2040 IEA世界能源前景方案图形

实现IEA的SDS(低于2度Celsius)情景需要在几个前面取得重大进展:

  • 提高发电,运输和工业流程的能源效率。
  • 减少化石燃料的排放,或捕获和存放或利用这些排放。
  • 增加非碳能量的数量,例如可再生能源和核电。

能源系统的变化需要时间,随着能源基础设施组件的长期资产,变化必须超越代替发电和分配系统,包括更换汽车,卡车,船舶和飞机车队或改造它们以满足更艰难的规格。增加可再生能源利用率也需要在风力和太阳能发电发电的日常可靠性方面进行显着改善,或者能够减少所需的备用化石燃料发射量的储能量的显着改善。

这些广泛变化的因素是场景规划很重要的原因。低碳未来不仅有一个途径;有许多方式,政府行动和技术发展可以与消费者行为互动,以带来较低的碳。与气候相关风险的表现是由战略规划的实力驱动的,包括使用广泛不同的情景,以及在各种可能性中管理的财务实力和资产灵活性。